Muzaffarnagar

With 17 lakh voters and a nearly 40% Muslim vote bank, the BJP’s Sanjeev Kumar Balyan has been holding this seat since 2014. Although his vote margin narrowed owing to the emergence of the RLD, that problem may not trouble the BJP this time as the RLD has joined hands with the BJP. The Second-largest party in the fray now is the BSP, followed by the SP, both of which have finalised their candidates. Out of five assembly seats, two are held by the BJP, two by the SP and one by RLD. The alliance with RLD seems to favour the BJP here especially in the absence of an alliance between the BSP and SP-Congress.<br><br>Large scale Hindu-Muslim riots in 2013 caused deep polarisation but an improvement in law and order situation since then has facilitated a kind of social reconciliation which was evident in local body polls in 2023 where many Muslim candidates found success. The seat is home to a prominent Jat community, whose farmers participated in the farmers’ protests. They have remained dissatisfied with sugarcane prices for years now and have made their displeasure known to the government. However, Hindutva as an issue remains important to voters here and the memory of the 2013 riots leaves them in two minds about moving away from the BJP. Improved law and order situation is also working in favour of the Yogi government which has been credited with a zero-tolerance approach towards gangster raj. It remains to be seen to what degree have Jat-Muslim ties rekindled, and whether that can affect the NDA’s prospects.