Bijnor

With almost 17 lakh voters, Bijnor lies in northwest UP and is a largely rural seat with 76% voters in rural areas. The constituency’s scheduled caste population stands at 19%, whereas Muslim votes comprise a whopping 40.63% of the vote and lean towards the BSP, SP and RLD. Currently, the seat is being held by Malook Nagar of the BSP who won the seat in 2019 by defeating Kunwar Bhartendra of the BJP who lost by a margin of 69,941 votes. This is where the RLD joining NDA will bear a significant impact on the political outcome in the seat. Of the five assembly segments, two are held by the BJP, two by RLD and one by SP. The BJP’s stronghold is primarily among SC votes and urban votes in Bijnor. This, coupled with the RLD’s strong presence among Jats, may help NDA clinch the seat away from the BSP this time. The RLD has fielded its candidate here on behalf of the NDA, naming Chandan Chauhan, MLA from Meerapur for the purpose. Meanwhile, the former national general secretary of the RLD, Vijendra Singh, who joined BSP recently has been declared as its candidate from Bijnor. The party has not repeated its sitting MP Malook Nagar as the candidate from this seat.<br><br>Communal polarisation is a major factor in Bijnor and parties rely on intricate voter arithmetic and political alliances to cross the winning mark. The majority of the Muslim population is concentrated in urban areas, where Muslims outnumber the Hindus, who are generally concentrated in the rural areas. The election is likely to turn into a three-way battle with BJP-RLD, SP-Congress and the BSP contesting alone. The Muslim vote is key in this constituency and it remains to be seen if this vote bank is splintered between the SP-Congress and BSP, and whether that helps the NDA ultimately or not.<br><br>Communal clashes between Jats and Muslims have been seen here in the past. However, tensions have reduced since 2017 after the Yogi government’s crackdown on crime and riots and emphasis on peace and security. Most recently, this region has seen participation in the farmers’ protests. Farmers also staged protests last winter against sugar mills complaining of delays in payments. Bijnor is also rife with instances of wild animal encounters. Farmers of several villages in UP's Bijnor district have declared a "war on leopards” seeking a "leopard-mukt (free) Bijnor”. The district is also prone to flooding owing to heavy monsoon rains and the fact that almost 12 mainstream and seasonal rivers pass through it. This significantly impacts human life and crop output in the district.